I don't care about what happens to Threads, Mastodon, or ActivityPub long-term.
I might like them, but it doesn't matter if they fail. Because the biggest impact won't be the adoption of any particular app or protocol. The real changes that ActivityPub is creating is awareness.
It's the fact that people are learning that there are alternative ways of building, using, and creating the web. Alternative pathways for building connection in digital spaces. That's the most important legacy of these apps and protocols.
And that legacy is already there! We've had stories in the media for months now about Twitter alternatives. Stories that mention Mastodon, ActivityPub, the idea of a Fediverse. We've had people talking about the open web, seriously considering decentralized social media.
The fact that Meta, this big social media giant, is even trying to appeal to integration with ActivityPub is huge! They've announced intent to federate, they included that in their marketing and onboarding, and there are conversations I see on Threads nearly every day about decentralization and federation. That will be the real impact of these apps.
The internet is changing already, simply because so many more people are getting exposed to these ideas.
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This is a snippet from Mariya Delano's podcast appearance on "Fresh Fusion" with Jared White. You can listen to the full episode here: https://jaredwhite.com/podcast/100/